Why scientific research institutions are behaving un-scientifically at the time of coronavirus crisis?

What made an epidemic as pandemic is humans traveling accross the globe without proper precautions. Ironically, premier research institutes in India, are forcing the students to travel, which potentially can carry the virus to every corner of the country.

In a time when the nation should look up to the scientific research community for solutions, ironically, they are becoming the part of the problem.

Opportunity in Crisis

The ides of March was coming. But, few days before that, most of the Universities/Research Institutes woke up to the fact that the number of CoViD 19 cases in India was nearing hundred. World Health Organization had already declared it a Pandemic. But now that no visitors or potential carriers, are allowed inside the campus of the premier institute, all conferences and workshops got cancelled. Common sense and Government directives, in a rare event, coincidentally aligned to avoid gathering of people which meant seminars, classes and even meetings were suspended. With no formal obligations, student could now whole heartedly work and publish a bunch of papers by the time the restrictions are lifted – or so thought many Professors (accross the globe).

History of science is exemplified by the time Newton got during the epidemic. Had he not followed social distancing at the time of the Great Plague in London, probably the apple would have missed its target and Gravity would have fallen on us years later. Inspired by it, many saw CoViD outbreak as an opportunity to have path-changing fundamental research many research papers written. Since health of the students was the priority, labs were closed so only the articles could be worked on.

However, all the dreams of the next Newton were shattered when it was notified that not just classes the whole institute needs to be shut down.

Students were directed to vacate the hostel. Some institutes gave two days to fly, others let the students have a week to plan their purse.

In IITs, IISERs, NISER, IISc, TIFR, JNU and other top research institutes/universities students come from all over the country. Some of these institutes directed students to vacate the hostel within days. This meant tens of thousands of student were now traveling across the country – the very recipi to transport the virus to all corners of the country.

The silver lining of the dark clouds came from few IISERs which rather encouraged the students to stay in campus and practice precautions.

Why students were forced to travel ?

The density and the responsibility

Most of the research institutes are densely packed. Each canteen/mess serves hundred. At least somebody has to go outside the campus to bring the goods that keeps the essential facilities running. In case one gets affected, it would not take much time before all the students get infected.

But there is more than what meets the density – Responsibility.

Given a choice, would you make a decision that has (a) 1% risk for life or (b) 10% risk for life? Obviously, you would go for the decision that has lower risk. But, now consider the same two options, with the only difference that you would be held accountable for all the loss of lives in case you choose option (a) . But you would not be asked a question if you choose option (b). Now does your choice change? Do you still prefer to lower the risk or go for the higher risk option where you bear no accountability? The same dilemma is faced by the administrative heads of many academic and research institutes. They have two options:

(a) Allowing all the students to stay within the institute premises enforcing proper precautions.
(b) Send them all back to home so that no one is the headache of the administration.

Many have opted for option (b). This not only increases the overall risk but also disregards the very scientific approach these institutes are the flag-bearers of.

Why sending back all the students is easy but WRONG ?

What’s the difficult but right step?

Institute campuses form an almost closed group. Yes, there are day scholars and visitors whose entry needs to be banned. Once all the entry points are closed for outsiders and it is known that none of the members residing inside the institute are infected, there is little chance that anyone would be infected. To prevent any member from going outside the premises all the facilities can be provided in campus. A major concern is that since the mess/canteen are common, this will accelerate the spread of the virus. But in a closed group it is almost impossible for the virus to get in the campus in the first place. The virus needs human carrier to travel long distance. The air can only carry it’s burden only upto few feets. Yes, there are people who would have to get in and out of the campus for getting essential ingredients like food supplies but those few people can be regularly checked. They can be trained with the best practices to avoid coming in contact with the virus. Necessary equipments like mask and gloves can be provided to them and the institutes medical team can monitor the health of 5 or 10 such employees. Another concern is sharing of utensils in the mess. Most viruses will be damaged by detergent cleaning preferably with hot water. But in case, the cleaning is not satisfactory, use and throw paper utensils can be used and properly disposed. The mess timings can be increased and students should be encouraged to take food back to hostels. Needless to say, students are expected to practice social distancing. If they would not be able to follow the norms in a science institute, it’s likely that they would not be able to follow the same at home either. As science students they are expected to follow the scientific advisory issued by Health ministry and World health organization.

Note that since most students would be below the age of 30, CoViD 19 usually would result in mild fever and the chances of it being severe is only 0.5%. The students with history of respiratory syndromes /lower immunity should be taken special care of. These selected few can be isolated and special medical attention can be provided. Thus with simple but effective measures there is a negligible chance that a closed campus would be affected by the corona virus. But the only problem is that, in the event it would, the administration would be considered responsible. And many institutions have chosen the easier path to send all the students back home and vacate the institute/hostel premises.
It is understandable to suspend classes and seminars where the attendance would be in the excess of 50 people since the probability of getting infected is proportional to the number of people that one encounters and the probability that the people are already infected. Groups of people discussing together should be discouraged. Social distancing should be the norm. Even under exceptional circumstances those who want to go home should be allowed with proper prevention advisory.

Why sending everyone back home is an unscientific step ?

To instruct all the students to vacate the hostels in two days increases the overall risk manyfold. Firstly, most of them would travel by air since major research institutions have students from all over India. Train is hardly an option as Tatkal is iffy but many would still manage to go via AC trains. Most of the corona virus cases in India can be traced back to the patient having travelled by air or having immediate contact with someone who travelled abroad. Planes are isolated chambers where if any of the 200 passenger has the virus it can easily spread to most people in the flight. There is limited medical checking before boarding. At this crisis the proper swab tests takes a day. Since it’s expensive and time consuming authorities have no choice but to use it judiciously after an initial thermal screening. But since temperature is a symptom that may develops in 2-14 days window after getting infected, a majority of the population would not be identified by thermal screening. But the asymptomatic patients can still spread the virus and in closed areas like AC train, flight the changes are quite high. Even when a group of say 100 is stranded long hrs for doing the test, the chances that if one is +ve could actually infect few among the 99 whose repots would be -ve.

Given that the N-95 masks are already in shortage it mandating all the students to fly is putting them in risk. And if ten thousand students arrange the masks, it would mean that those, including medical staff, who would actually need the mask would be left searching for it due to limited supply. Since thousands of students would make their way back to home, the students going from or via already affected areas like Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore can potentially cause an outbreak in states like Bengal,Bihar etc where there are limited or no reported cases yet. It’s not that the students themselves are at high risk as the mortality rate is much less than 1% for the healthy young adult. But once they go to their home and come in contact with the elderly parents, uncles, aunts and grandparents whose age is 60+ have 5-10% chance to get into severe condition. Those above 75, the risk could be as high as 10-15%. Also not all the students have the best facilities at some to self quarantine. A significant fraction of students are from village or lower middle class whose family may live in slums. Those remote areas are unlikely to be infected by a traveller directly coming from abroad. But making students travel all over the country is the perfect recipe to spread the virus to remote areas. Worse, much of the population in these areas have no savings. So they are in no economic position to stop working. Hunger would starve their family before corona does if they remain home found. And these population work at various places including providing household service and we are looking effectively exponential community transmission of the diseases. Intensive health care is either not available or not affordable in these regions.

Also it should be added that in many institutes where the students are not mandated to go back home, some still prefer to go back home. They see it as the last chance in the coming few months to visit their home before the situation in India worsens. The thought of getting stranded in the institute is making them fly home and in the process burdening the already busy administration of air ports and health officials.

How would the administration ensure safety when the students return ?

Even financially, many students don’t have savings and overall 20k INR for travel to and fro may take a hit. Also since gloves and masks are costly many may choose not wear it to save few bucks. And mask that are contaminated need to be properly disposed, which may not be a practice known to all the travellers.
Forget all the logistics and money that the students are forced to spend but let’s ask the administration how would they administration resume the normal services? The institutions are shut down for a period of two weeks until further notice. This is likely to extended to a month or two given the growth rate of the cases . But once the growth rate of patients decreases, when would the institute call back all the students? Given all the reasons why they are sending the students back home, once the students return even if one or two students get infected in the return flight but do not show symptoms for 5 days, this could potentially infect the entire population of institute, and eventually the city. Thus by sending all the students back home the probability of an outbreak not only increases in the whole country but inside the campus as well.

By sending all the students back home, the probability of an outbreak in the institute increases once normal operations resume.

One can argue that the institute would advise and ensure quarantine of everyone who returns. But in that case is it not better to facilitate that before they go home.

Long Term Lessons

Just because the administration of an scientific research institute will be held responsible, the decision it takes can be unscientific and potentially increase the risk of not only people inside the institute but the nation as a whole. This is a health crisis and such time scientific team should advise the administration and not the other way around. Certain directives from the government and authorities may have forced the administration to effect the lockdown with a narrow perspective. Thus every institute must form scientific team, constituting not only local scientists but also one outside the state, that assesses the situation and facilities within the campus and takes appropriate decisions from a global perspective. When unscientific decisions are taken in scientific institutions in a time of public health crisis, it is imperative for scientists to take the lead to voice their perspective and present to the administration.

Hopefully, all the travels are safe and do not bring the doomsday. But it’s a lesson to learnt regarding how not to cook a recipe for disaster. In India, virus outbreaks are not once in a decade anymore. Within last five years, we had swine flu outbreak, Nipah virus and now the CoViD 19. Thus it’s not a thing to easily forget and move on. But a lesson is to be learnt so that the scientific institute employs protocols that scientifically lowers the risk of not only the students but as in this case the entire nation.

Some References